A recession in 2023 has a 55% chance of occurring.

Luke Tilley of Wilmington Trust stated, "We have this week established a modest recession for next year as our baseline outlook, with a 55% chance.

The Federal Reserve's rapid interest rate increases have increased the likelihood of a US recession by 55%, but an economist chief believes that Thursday's October CPI data may change that picture.

Luke Tilley, the head of asset allocation and quantitative services at Wilmington Trust,

told Insider that his company's projection is under the consensus and that he anticipates new data to reveal that inflation has moderated a bit.

Bloomberg reports that the median estimate for the CPI is 0.6% month over month and 7.9% year over year. That would be a decrease from the figure of 8.2% in September.

It will ultimately come down to the Core reading, thus Tilley said that food and energy are not included.

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